Data the past two weeks, since our last edition, was generally unsurprising. Home sales data remains weak, as seen in this past week’s existing home sales report. Last week’s monthly jobs report was sturdy enough to not be an obvious impediment to a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, inflation data remains elevated, thereby keeping a Fed hike “in play” for the rest of 2026. The Mideast situation lingers and continues to potentially underpin commodity prices and inflation. The highlight of the week ahead should be the FOMC meeting and announcement. In addition to a rate decision, a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released and provide context on Fed members’ outlooks on the policy rate (“dot plot”), GDP, employment, and inflation. The market deems the meeting as “live”, with a 25-bps hike probability priced ~74% as of Thursday afternoon. See herein for related charts and color...

Tune in for a thought-provoking discussion with Frank Farone, Managing Director at Darling Consulting Group, on how community financial institutions can evaluate the true cost of funds, challenge common misconceptions about wholesale funding, and develop a more effective approach to liquidity, profitability, and balance sheet management...

After years of anticipating a return to lower interest rates, many financial institutions have come to recognize that rates may remain elevated for longer than originally expected. While a higher-for-longer environment presents challenges—including deposit competition, funding pressures, slower loan demand, and margin compression—it also creates opportunities for well-positioned institutions to enhance earnings, strengthen liquidity, and support strategic growth...