The extended now-with-no-end-date Mideast ceasefire has instilled a steadier backdrop to markets and limited rate changes, although the situation remains tenuous. Data released over the week was generally better-than-expected. Retail sales posted a M-o-M increase, although the figure is not adjusted for inflation, and Pending Home Sales flashed a hopeful M-o-M rise. Senate hearings on the prospective new Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, were held, but it is too early to evoke forecasts on the topic. The week ahead serves a busy slate of economic reports, although the highlight may be the April 29th FOMC outcome and the subsequent press conference. At this stage, the Fed is widely expected to remain on hold and note the ongoing uncertainty from the Mideast conflict and its potential impacts. The markets, meanwhile, remain in a tense yet hopeful pattern that the ceasefire will hold and limit further economic or market repercussions.

Back by popular demand, Frank Farone, Managing Director of Darling Consulting Group, returns to join us once again for an informative session focused on Liquidity and Asset/Liability Management. Frank will address key challenges and provide actionable strategies to help FHLBNY members stay resilient and take advantage of the new rate environment now and in the months/years to come.

We are now experiencing a “higher for longer” phase in the interest-rate cycle, accompanied by an inversion in the short-to medium terms followed by a steepening (see following chart). The Fed is still in a restrictive posture, but market expectations indicate a near-term easing, however, uncertainty surrounding the potential of future heightened growth leading to elevated inflation is causing steepening at the longer-end of the curve…