The past week’s economic data was generally a “mixed bag” of positives and negatives. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was widely considered tame enough to warrant a September Fed rate cut, the report contained numerous concerning elements. Among the more prominent concerns was the core reading’s 3.1% year-on-year gain, which is well above the Fed’s desired 2% target. Meanwhile, the surprising month-on-month .4% gain in services and .5% gain in the core ex-shelter reading have also spurred concern about brewing inflationary forces. This past spring’s inventory buildup has helped to somewhat contain tariff-induced price pressures, at least for the near-term, but pressures are still evident. The CPI report can be “sliced and diced” in numerous ways, but the takeaway is that inflation is not yet where the Fed wants it, and so prospects for a rate cut appear to rest highly on softer data from the jobs and growth front. Moreover, and seemingly validating the Fed’s wait-and-see posture, the Thursday morning release of a .9% July rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) marked the largest increase in wholesale prices in three years. Note that there are both employment and inflation reports to come in September before the next FOMC meeting on September 17th.

Kristina Hooper discusses her outlook for the economy and markets for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. From recent challenges in the banking industry to inflation to earnings, 2023 has already faced a variety of uncertainties…

Inflation has cooled substantially in most major economies, with no significant downturn in global growth. And it appears that the long-anticipated “soft landing” has arrived, so what happens next? Back by popular demand, Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, discusses her 2025 Investment Outlook.