Economic Perspectives

Breaking the Record: United States Economic Expansion
Enters Its Eleventh Year

Authored by Brian Jones, FHLBNY Financial Economist

Highlights

July 15, 2019

• Current economic expansion is now the longest in U.S. history, but remains the slowest since WW II
• Labor productivity and compensation costs growth weakest of any post-WW II cyclical upturn
• Other data compare favorably to those of the previous decade-long expansion
• U.S. expansion third longest among developing countries, but still shy of other record holders
• Probability of a near-term downturn negligible, inverted yield curve remains a concern further out
• Official institutions and private forecasters expect the current upturn to continue through 2021

Tearing June’s page from the calendar, the current business cycle upturn became the longest in our Nation’s history. More than double the average 58.4-month duration of prior post-World War II expansions, the recovery from the Great Recession…

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