Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

09/18/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 18, 2026

Data this past week generally portrayed the ongoing trend of elevated prices (Empire State manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed Business survey prices up), stable labor markets (improved jobless claims), and relatively decent overall economic activity (retail sales sturdy) except for the housing sector (lower sentiment/starts/permits). The Mideast situation lingers and continues to potentially underpin commodity prices and inflation. Indeed, using one of its only levers for quelling inflation forces, the Fed pulled the trigger on an as-expected 25-bps rate hike this past week. The Fed’s fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP, aka “dot plot”), moreover, reflects that the hike is likely not a “one-and-done”. The median projection for end-2026 shows another 25-bps hike before a holding period throughout 2027 to be followed by a few cuts in 2028-2029. The longer-run level for the appropriate fed funds rate was marked up from 3.0625 to 3.25%. The market, in comparison (as of midday Thursday), prices for just shy of three 25-bps hikes by September 2027. The week ahead is relatively light on economic data but offers a plethora of Fedspeak...

09/11/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 11, 2026

Data the past two weeks, since our last edition, was generally unsurprising. Home sales data remains weak, as seen in this past week’s existing home sales report. Last week’s monthly jobs report was sturdy enough to not be an obvious impediment to a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, inflation data remains elevated, thereby keeping a Fed hike “in play” for the rest of 2026. The Mideast situation lingers and continues to potentially underpin commodity prices and inflation. The highlight of the week ahead should be the FOMC meeting and announcement. In addition to a rate decision, a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released and provide context on Fed members’ outlooks on the policy rate (“dot plot”), GDP, employment, and inflation. The market deems the meeting as “live”, with a 25-bps hike probability priced ~74% as of Thursday afternoon. See herein for related charts and color...

08/28/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 28, 2026

Data this past week was mixed and void of game-changing impact. Housing-related data remains mixed, with new home sales lower but the house price moderation trend generally remaining intact. Inflation data remains elevated, thereby keeping a Fed hike “in play” for the rest of 2026. The Mideast situation lingers and continues to potentially underpin commodity prices and inflation. The week ahead serves another steady stream of data before the holiday weekend. The series of labor market reports, including the monthly BLS jobs release, will attract close attention from the markets. However, the more immediate potential highlight could be Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole Symposium address, slated for ~10 a.m. on the 28th, near the time this publication hits inboxes...

08/21/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 21, 2026

Economic reports this past week were mixed, with mostly dour housing reports offsetting a few better-than-expected datasets. In our region, the Empire Manufacturing report was an upside surprise, but the monthly NY Fed Business Leaders’ Survey was lackluster. The Mideast situation remains ongoing, thereby leaving its potential impact on commodity prices and inflation intact. However, at this stage, the market reaction function to the conflict has diminished, and effects from an enduring stalemate appear largely “baked in.” The week ahead serves a busy slate of data, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation barometer a potential highlight...

08/14/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 14, 2026

Economic reports this past week hinted at a more subdued pace of inflation and prompted some pullback in rates; see inside for further color. The Mideast situation remains fluid, thereby leaving its potential impact on inflation still intact. However, at this stage, the market reaction function has decreased until and unless actual agreements take hold, and the effects from an ongoing stalemate appear largely “baked in.” The week ahead offers numerous survey-based reports, aka “soft data,” as well as a set of housing-related reports...

08/07/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 7, 2026

Economic reports this past week were generally mixed and limited in impact. The ADP monthly private jobs report posted well below expectations, but Friday’s BLS monthly jobs report, to be released just before this publication reaches inboxes, has greater influence on markets and the Fed. Lingering price pressures, meanwhile, remain evident in data releases. Apparent progress on a partial agreement in the Mideast conflict spurred a slight drop in yields through mid-week. But the situation remains decidedly fluid, thereby leaving its potential impact on inflation still intact. However, at this stage, the market reaction function has decreased unless and until actual agreements take hold. Looking beyond the Friday morning jobs report, the week ahead data-wise is quieter and of a more second-tier nature...

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