Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

02/06/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending February 6, 2026

Whereas last week’s FOMC noted signs of stability in unemployment, the past week’s employment-related data served to reinforce the theme of an ongoing less-than-dynamic labor market. For instance, the ADP private payrolls report posted a 22K rise, or less than half the consensus forecast, for January. Initial jobless claims, while not a large spike, nonetheless registered at the highest level in eight weeks. Perhaps weather-related dynamics played a part in these results. Challenger Job Cuts data posted its largest January increase since 2009. Lastly, Thursday’s JOLTS report registered the lowest number of job openings in five years and thereby continued the downward trend of this metric. The week ahead contains a plethora of tier-1 economic data, some of which may shed better light on the labor market. In addition to the rescheduled, owing to the partial federal government shutdown, jobs report for January, there will also be a retail sales update and the January Consumer Inflation (CPI) report.

01/30/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending January 30, 2026

The highlight of the past week was the largely uneventful FOMC meeting at which, as expected, rates were left unchanged. While two officials unsurprisingly dissented on the decision and were in favor of a cut, Chair Powell noted a strong consensus within the Fed to keep rates steady. The Fed noted that unemployment has shown signs of stability and that activity has expanded at a solid pace while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The official statement also removed comments that had noted rising downside risks to employment. The reaction in the rates market was minimal. A pause by the Fed was likely bolstered as well by the lingering uncertainties from delayed and/or partial data, owing to the government shutdown in the Fall, tariff policy and court rulings thereon, and the upcoming transition in Fed leadership this spring. The week ahead offers a few labor market-related reports of which the employment situation report on the 6th should be the most prominent and influential. These reports should add context to the FOMC and Powell’s comments regarding employment dynamics.

01/23/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending January 23, 2026

Although subdued as of this writing, the past week experienced a bout of volatility, mostly owing to renewed tariff-related tensions. The 10-year UST, at 4.26% midday Thursday, finally broke out of its 4.00 to 4.20% range of the past three months. Economic releases, including inflation datasets, of the past week mostly met or were slightly stronger to expectations and have likely solidified a pause, after three successive 25-bps cuts, by the Fed at the looming January 28th FOMC meeting. The coming week’s slate of data is generally second-tier, in terms of usual market impact. The Supreme Court decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, meanwhile, has been pushed out until late February at the earliest. If declared illegal, market strategists cite the potential for a rise in long-term yields and a curve steepening move, as tariff reimbursements could act as a stimulus. But reaction may be muted, since many tariffs could potentially be reimposed via alternative authorities.

01/16/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending January 16, 2026

The past week offered a series of inflation-related releases that were largely uneventful but revealed metrics that were still above the Fed’s 2% target. Other data, meanwhile, leaned towards being slightly better than expected. Retail sales, for instance, registered at resilient levels. Given the past week’s data and last Friday’s “okay” employment situation report, the dye seems cast for a Fed pause on rates at the January 28th FOMC. The upcoming holiday-shortened week serves a steady set of generally second-tier economic data which is unlikely to alter this status. Another potential highlight could be a Supreme Court decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. If declared illegal, market strategists cite the potential for a rise in long-term yields and a curve steepening move, as tariff reimbursements could act as a stimulus. But reaction may be muted, since many tariffs could potentially be reimposed via alternative authorities.

01/09/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending January 9, 2026

The past week offered a series of labor market releases which generally reflected a less dynamic yet relatively stable jobs market. The end-of-week employment situation report, released after our update went to press, will cap off the data deluge and be the likely highlight. Another potential end-of-week highlight could be a Supreme Court decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. If declared illegal, market strategists cite the potential for a rise in long-term yields and a curve steepening move, as tariff reimbursements could act as a stimulus. But reaction may be limited, since tariffs could potentially be reimposed via alternative authorities. Other data this past week reflected ongoing manufacturing sector weakness but somewhat firmer services sector activity, as we review herein. The upcoming week will shift attention to the inflation-side of the Fed’s mandate, with Tuesday’s Consumer Price report likely to be the highlight two weeks before the January 28th FOMC outcome.

12/19/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending December 19, 2025

The past week provided data points directly related to the Fed’s dual mandate on inflation and employment. Owing to the government shutdown in the Fall, the delayed data releases have contained a fair bit of noise and quirks. Essentially, fresher data in January should provide a better picture of economic trends. Please see herein for further color. Note that there is a plethora of government shutdown-delayed data that may be announced and released on shorter notice over the next three weeks. The jobs report for December will be released on January 9 and thereby get this data point back on its standard release schedule.

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