Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

06/26/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending June 26, 2026

The past week’s economic reports were generally near expectations, although new home sales registered a subpar surprise for May. The Fed’s favored inflation barometer, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator index, rose .4% M-o-M in May, or slightly below the market’s expectation of .5%. This result prompted a dip in yields on Thursday morning. But it should be noted that the core-PCE, at .3% M-o-M, remains well above the Fed’s target. Moreover, the core reading for April was revised up from .2 to .3%. The Mideast quasi-resolution has helped to contain term yields and dial down inflation expectations, at least for now. But the situation remains fluid. Note that Friday, July 3rd is a market holiday but not a banking holiday; the FHLBNY will be open. Also note that there is an early-market close on Thursday, July 2nd. Kindly consult with the desk regarding transactions near this timeframe.

06/18/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending June 18, 2026

The past week’s economic reports were mixed and overshadowed by the FOMC outcome. A set of housing reports sent somewhat contradictory signals, as housing starts were weak but pending home sales registered a solid improvement. Retail sales revealed that consumers were “hanging in” but likely draining savings to do so. The market treated the FOMC as a hawkish surprise, and rates pushed higher in response. The last sentence of the streamlined FOMC statement captured the tone of the outcome and market’s reaction: “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Indeed, new Fed President Warsh seemingly sought to portray independence and inflation-fighting credibility. The fresh “dot plot”, meanwhile, revealed a skew towards rate hikes. The Mideast conflict appears to have reached a resolution, and this development likely helped to contain a further breakout higher in rates.

06/12/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending June 12, 2026

The past week’s economic reports were generally neutral, with some modest improvement revealed in parts of the inflation data. All in all, the data has fortified the Fed’s “on hold” posture. The Mideast situation remains fluid, and any meaningful developments could move the rates market. For now, markets are pricing in greater odds of a Fed rate hike by late-2026 and early-2027. The FOMC outcome on Wednesday afternoon should highlight the upcoming week’s calendar. While no change in policy rates is anticipated, with the lower/upper bounds remaining 3.50/3.75%, the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for growth, inflation, unemployment rate, and policy rate (“dot plot”) will be released and draw market attention. A set of housing market reports is also due in the coming week.

06/05/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending June 05, 2026

The past week’s economic reports were weighted towards the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate, and they generally portrayed a labor market that, while not dynamic, has perhaps established a firmer footing. The “big kahuna” of labor market data, namely the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, will be released after this edition went to press and will provide further context on employment conditions. Inflation data, meanwhile, has remained elevated and fortified the Fed’s “on hold” posture. The Mideast situation remains fluid, and any meaningful developments could move the rates market. For now, markets are pricing in greater odds of a Fed rate hike by early-2027. Looking forward to next week, the inflation reports should highlight the data slate...

05/29/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending May 29, 2026

The past two weeks’ economic reports have generally reflected weak “soft”, or survey-oriented, data. The poor sentiment was most clearly evidenced in last week’s record low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for May. Meanwhile, “hard” data, or readings of actual aggregate activity, have been relatively steady and occasionally have bested expectations. Inflation data has proven concerning and seemingly cemented, for now, the “on hold” posture for the Fed. The Mideast situation remains fluid, and any meaningful developments could move the rates market. Indeed, the past week’s news of a potential resolution framework, or prospects of a memorandum of understanding on a framework, led to a decline in oil prices and yields. Looking forward to next week, the data slate is heavy on labor market-related releases, with the monthly jobs report the likely highlight.

05/15/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending May 15, 2026

The past week’s data was influential, as it revealed that inflationary pressures appear definitively present and thereby solidified an on-hold posture from the Fed. Indeed, incoming Fed Chair Warsh is likely to encounter more forceful resistance from committee members to any policy-easing bias at the next FOMC in June. The Mideast situation, meanwhile, remains fluid, and any meaningful developments could move the rates market. Looking forward to next week, the data slate is lighter and composed of second-tier reports. The bond markets will close early on Friday the 22nd for the Memorial Day holiday weekend, and we encourage members to connect with the desk on the timing of any potential end-of-week longer-tenor advances...

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The content provided in these disclosures is presented as a courtesy to be used only for informational purposes and is not represented to be error free. The FHLBNY makes no representations or warranties of any kind with respect to the content contained herein, such representations and warranties being expressly disclaimed. The FHLBNY is not a financial or investment advisor.

Moreover, the FHLBNY does not represent or warrant that the content of these disclosures is accurate, complete or current for any specific or particular purpose or application. It is not intended to provide nor should anyone consider that it provides legal, accounting, tax or other advice. Such advice should only be rendered in reference to the particular facts and circumstances appropriate to each situation. The FHLBNY encourages you to contact appropriate professional(s) and consultant(s) to assess your specific needs and circumstances and to render such advice accordingly. In addition, the FHLBNY is not endorsing or recommending the use of the means or methods contained in or through these disclosures for any special or particular purpose.

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